Milford businesses

A recent dip in this fintech could be a huge opportunity in the long run

Bfintech razilienne PagSeguro (NYSE: PAGS) has plunged recently, dropping nearly half to its recent low. It is now down about 37% from recent highs and 31% for 2021.

The drop can be attributed to a rule change proposal from Brazil’s central bank to cap interchange fees on prepaid cards at 0.5%.

While this change may affect Pagbank’s income from PagSeguro, prepaid interchange fees are only a small part of PagSeguro’s overall business, which is primarily driven by merchant processing fees and fund lending from rolling. With that in mind, such a large sale seems extremely over the top and could open up an opportunity for dumb long-term investors.

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PagSeguro is a leading brand with a long track of growth

PagSeguro was founded in 2006 under the umbrella of the Brazilian Internet company UOL, and became an independent company through its IPO 2018. The company touts its comprehensive digital finance business through merchant acquisition, digital banking, point-of-sale devices, free digital bank accounts and other banking services. Its mission is “to disrupt and democratize financial services in Brazil, a concentrated, underpenetrated, and high interest rate market, by providing an end-to-end digital banking ecosystem that is secure, affordable, simple and mobile.” first for both traders and consumers. ”

You can think of PagSeguro a bit like the Square (NYSE: SQ) from Brazil. The company offered online payment processing services and point-of-sale systems to small and micro merchants that had long operated in cash only. PagSeguro then started offering a free digital bank account to its merchants, through which it provides other services, such as prepayment on merchant receivables (installment payment plans are common among consumers in Brazil).

PagSeguro extended its digital banking to consumers with the launch of PagBank in 2019, where it earns money on wire transfers, interchange fees, credit cards, P2P transactions, loans and other services – a bit like Square moving from merchant point of sale systems to its consumers – in front of Cash App. It is PagBank’s prepaid cards that are likely to be affected by the new interchange fee limit.

What is the impact of the trade rule? Maybe not at all

While some financial analysts have estimated that PagSeguro’s revenue in 2022 could be affected by low to medium numbers and Adjusted EBITDA as a teenager under the new rule, a recent management press release had its own more positive view. Based on several scenarios, management now expects a negligible effect on net sales and net income 2022, and in fact expects a slight benefit to rule in 2023 and beyond.

How could it be? This is because while PagSeguro earns income from prepaid interchange fees linked to its consumer bank accounts, the acquiring merchant pay interchange fees as cost of goods sold. Therefore, the larger acquiring company will become more profitable if the interchange fees decrease. “The fact that PAGS has complementary payment activities (acquisition and issuance of cards) creates a natural cover for the company,” the statement said.

Meanwhile, the company has a long track

Assuming this rule change does not affect PagSeguro’s growth prospects, its updated stock price could be a great opportunity. This is because Brazil’s banking system is still highly concentrated among traditional institutions, that there are a significant number of unbanked people in the country, and many still use cash for transactions – even commercial transactions. electronic.

In 2017, Brazil’s top five banking institutions held 83.4% of financial assets. As of 2017, 65% of bill payments were still made in cash in Brazil. And as of 2019, 57% of Brazilians hadn’t even heard of digital banking.

As more Brazilians embrace digital banking, move away from cash, and while PagSeguro can offer a more user-friendly solution than traditional banks, the opportunity remains quite significant. Management has just released preliminary results for the third quarter, showing a total consolidated payment volume up 85% year-on-year, with acquisition activities unaffected by these regulations up 49 %. Importantly, PagBank users grew by one million to 12.2 million active users, almost 9% quarter-over-quarter growth.

With the stock’s recent sell-off, it is now trading at just 27 times the average estimate for next year’s earnings. For a business that is growing so quickly, that’s a pretty undemanding assessment.

While regulatory overshoot and inflation fears in Brazil may weigh on sentiment in the near term, remember that PagSeguro earns most of its money as a percentage of transaction costs, so a large chunk of its revenue is expected. grow alongside any problematic inflation. Given that recent interchange fee fears are not as severe as previously thought, the recent sale of PagSeguro appears to be a solid opportunity in these emerging markets. growth stocks.

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Billy Duberstein owns shares of PagSeguro Digital and has the following options: short January 2022 $ 25 put on PagSeguro Digital. Its clients may own shares of the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares and recommends PagSeguro Digital and Square. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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